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  • Frank Tian

IMF Quarterly GDP Forecast

Disrupted recovery. No interest rate hike, yet.


1/25: IMF lowered the 2022 global GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 4.4%. 🔻


🇺🇸 US: lowered from 5.2% to 4.0%.

🇨🇳 China: lowered from 5.6% to 4.8%.

🇨🇦 Canada: lowered from 4.9% to 4.1%.


Main factors … some are intertwined:

👉 Lingering Omicron

👉 Supply chain challenge

👉 Persistent high inflation

👉 Failed US infrastructure plan

👉 Struggling Chinese real estate

👉 Softer external demand for Canada


1/26: No interest rate hike from BoC (Bank of Canada) 🏦


Canada was the forerunner to slow down stimulus efforts.

Some even called the 1st rate hike in Jan.

But BoC decided to hold the rate.

It wants to see the impact of Omicron through.


1/26: Fed’s Message 🔉


Fed signaled a March rate hike and,

Subsequent steady move away from the accommodative monetary policy.

The soon shrinking balance sheet will also shift away from MBS to more treasury,

Aimed to divert funds away from housing, which saw a 16.9% price increase in 2021.


Consumer credit book, courses, resources: www.franktian.net


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