Effects of Fed's 10 Rate Hikes
The Fed has handed out 10 rate hikes, with a possible 11th next month. What are the effects of the fastest rate hikes, so far? [US Macro...
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Frank Tian
Jun 10, 20231 min read
Canada Macro Update
Consumers hang in there while interest rate continues to pinch.
Frank Tian
Jun 4, 20231 min read
Even High School Kids Can Read the Fed
📢 From public health to the economy, public officials are easy targets to blame. In the case of central bankers, one reason seems to be...
Frank Tian
May 27, 20231 min read
Canada Growing Household Debt
🇨🇦 CMHC recently highlighted the growing household debt vs. GDP in Canada. 75% of the debt are mortgages. Different from the 30-year...
Frank Tian
May 15, 20231 min read
US Q1 Consumer Credit Update
With the banking crisis in March, How is US consumer credit doing? Here is the Q1 ‘23 Fed report: 👇 Quarterly debt growth slowed to...
Frank Tian
May 9, 20231 min read
Recession? Soft Landing? US Macro
Recession? Soft landing? The outlook is between gloomy and sunny.
Frank Tian
Apr 29, 20231 min read
🇨🇦 Latest Financial Risk Outlook
In April, the Canadian financial regulator OSFI released its annual outlook of financial system risks. 1️⃣ Housing market downturn risk...
Frank Tian
Apr 27, 20232 min read
🏨 Hotel California and the American Economy
𝘔𝘪𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘦𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘨𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥, '𝘞𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘭...
Frank Tian
Apr 5, 20231 min read
Stay Calm - What happened to banks/consumers
Stay calm. The message from the SVB CEO was not enough. It took a series of actions from the US president, the Treasury, multiple...
Frank Tian
Mar 28, 20231 min read
🇺🇸 US Interest Rate
The 3-year Pandemic Journey - 🇺🇸 US Interest Rate Yesterday the Fed continued the rate hike for the 9th time - with 25 bps. Here is a...
Frank Tian
Mar 22, 20231 min read
🇺🇸 US Inflation
The 3-year Pandemic Journey 🇺🇸 US Inflation To understand how we got here, it helps to look back. 🟢 May 2020: 0.2% The pandemic...
Frank Tian
Mar 1, 20231 min read
Canadian Macro Update
🇨🇦 Jan inflation down to 5.9%. Why is the price still high up there? Inflation measures the speed of price increases. The drop of...
Frank Tian
Jan 3, 20231 min read
Tech Back to Earth
The low-hanging fruits of tech adoption were picked. People went to cloud nine to look for exotic breeds, but the produce cannot be too...
Frank Tian
Dec 4, 20221 min read
🏠 Canadian Mortgage Risk Snapshot - Q4 '22
Big 5 banks’ Q4 earnings reports are out. Here is an update of the mortgage book. 👇 It is a very Rough estimate, as each bank reports...
Frank Tian
Nov 16, 20221 min read
US Household Debt Q3 Update
Q3 saw fast rate hikes and an uncertain future. How is the US household credit doing? Here is the latest Fed report: 👇 US household debt...
Frank Tian
Oct 31, 20221 min read
🇺🇸 Macro: Another Large Rate Hike
As expected, the Fed hiked the rate by another 75 bps today. The cumulative rate increase this year is 375 bps - the fastest in history....
Frank Tian
Oct 25, 20221 min read
🇨🇦 Canada Rate Decision Today (Updated)
BoC hiked the rate by another 50 bps, which brings the cumulative rate hike this year to 350 bps. The increase is lower than the...
Frank Tian
Sep 27, 20221 min read
Unemployment Rate vs. Consumer Credit Risk
🇺🇸 Fed’s Unemployment Rate Forecast And its implication for consumer credit risk. 👇 When Fed hiked the rate by another 75 bps on 9/21,...
Frank Tian
Sep 3, 20221 min read
Canada Rate Decision - September
🇨🇦 Canada Rate Decision Today As the market expected, BoC hiked the rate by another 75 bps, in an effort to bring down inflation...
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