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  • Frank Tian

🇺🇸 Macro: Another Large Rate Hike

The Fed raised the interest rate by 75 bps today.

This brings the cumulative rate increase this year to 225 bps.

With full employment, Fed’s only goal now is price stability - last month, US inflation accelerated to 9.1%.

What about the likely recession?

The Q2 GDP growth reading could be negative again tomorrow.

Well, it is not the central bank’s mandate to maintain the GDP growth, which is only one metric of the economy.

As banks’ Q2 earning reports show, consumers continued to shop with the excess savings from the last 2 years.

That means the interest rate can afford to be high for a while, without damping the overall demand too fast.

Below is a recap of the latest macro parameters.

🟥 June inflation Y/Y growth set a 41-year record high at 9.1%.

🟦 Number of job vacancies slightly down in May: 11.3 million

🟦 Number of quits little changed in May: 4.3 million

🟩 June job gains: +372, 000

🟩 June unemployment rate remained at 3.6% (3.5% in Feb 2020)

🟩 June # of unemployed down slightly at 5.9 million (5.7 million in Feb 2020)

🟧 July consumer confidence (U of Michigan) stays near the bottom: +1.1 points M/M to 51.1

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