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Unemployment Rate vs. Consumer Credit Risk
🇺🇸 Fed’s Unemployment Rate Forecast And its implication for consumer credit risk. 👇 When Fed hiked the rate by another 75 bps on 9/21,...
Frank Tian
Sep 27, 20221 min read
💯 Preapproved? Not Really.
When I started to work in the US market in 2015, it took me a while to figure out that a preapproval does not necessarily mean you will...
Frank Tian
Sep 5, 20221 min read


Student Loan Update
*UPDATE*: Student loan pause extended again to 12/31. Up to $10K student loan/$20K Pell Grant will be canceled. 43M borrowers will...
Frank Tian
Aug 24, 20221 min read
🕵️♂️ 7 At-risk Consumer Segments to Watch
Even with some good US data points: July inflation drops to 8.5% July added 528K jobs The horizon is still cloudy with multiple risk...
Frank Tian
Aug 14, 20221 min read
🍎 Apple’s Inches Into Finance Are Closely Watched.
Apple’s Breakout (from the existing financial system) project was first reported by Bloomberg back in March 2022. Since then, regulators,...
Frank Tian
Aug 12, 20221 min read


US Household Debt Q2 Update
Q2 saw the steepest interest rate hike. How is the US household credit doing? Here is the latest quarterly report from the Fed: 👇 US...
Frank Tian
Aug 8, 20221 min read


BNPL Impact on Credit Score - Multiple Trades
FICO/Experian BNPL Study (Continued) How would multiple BNPL loans impact a FICO score? Suna Hafizogullari, senior director, FICO Scores...
Frank Tian
Jul 29, 20221 min read


US Banks Q2 Mortgages
Interest Rate Effect on Mortgage The Q2 earnings reports provided a glimpse of the latest impact of the interest rate hike. Q2 ‘22...
Frank Tian
Jul 25, 20221 min read
BNPL Regulation Update
BNPL Regulation Update - Slowly, But Surely. The window of regulatory arbitrage is gradually closing in several markets. 🇦🇺 Australia...
Frank Tian
Jul 19, 20221 min read


2022 US Banks Stress Testing Result
With the possible imminent recession, how would the US banks fare? Based on the stress testing of the 34 largest US banks, they have...
Frank Tian
Jul 17, 20221 min read
Credit Card Benchmarking Resources
Probably prompted by the fast-moving macro economy, a few connections recently asked me where to get credit card benchmarking metrics....
Frank Tian
Jul 5, 20221 min read


ACL of Canada Big 5 Banks
Even with rising recession risk, In the most recent financial quarter, Big 5 Canadian banks continued to release reserves. In Q2 F’22,...
Frank Tian
Jun 23, 20221 min read
Apple Late for the Pay Later Party
Apple rolled out its own BNPL product - “Apple Pay Later”. It is a questionable move, given the timing and the strategic shift. 🚩...
Frank Tian
Jun 20, 20222 min read


BNPL - Underwrite Your Loan
As Professor G gave his quick take on BNPL, He mentioned credit card guardrails. What guardrails? Many wonders. There are 2 things that...
Frank Tian
Jun 19, 20222 min read


Morgan Stanley - Consumer Deposit
As the stimulus benefit gradually recedes, consumer delinquency will continue to normalize/increase in 2022 - first with the subprime...
Frank Tian
Jun 15, 20221 min read
CFPB on Black-Box Models
Your model is complicated, But you still need to explain it. That is the latest reminder from CFPB. ECOA mandates lenders to explain...
Frank Tian
Jun 11, 20221 min read
Survive 3 Recessions
Given the rapidly shifting market lately, I couldn’t help thinking about the words I heard back in 2008, From the CRO of a large US...
Frank Tian
Jun 9, 20221 min read


BNPL impact on FICO (2)
My last post on BNPL’s impact on FICO drew strong interest from the community. Why do the two recent studies show conflicting results? I...
Frank Tian
May 26, 20222 min read


Q1 Credit Update
In the eventful Q1 2022, How is the US household credit doing? Here is the latest quarterly report from the Fed: US household debt up...
Frank Tian
May 20, 20221 min read


BNPL impact on FICO (1)
BNPL begins to show up on credit reports. What is the impact on the FICO score? FICO gives the latest analysis. 👇 Using Experian data...
Frank Tian
May 18, 20221 min read
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