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  • Frank Tian

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada Macro Update

July inflation is out โ€ฆ +7.6% Y/Y.

Finally, it is moving in the right direction, but still outpacing wages.

๐ŸŸจ July inflation down to 7.6% Y/Y vs. 8.1% in June.

๐ŸŸจ July average hourly wages: +5.2% Y/Y.

Despite # of jobs down slightly in the last 2 months, the unemployment rate is still below the pre-pandemic level.

๐ŸŸฉ May # of job vacancies remain at 1.0 million

๐ŸŸฉ July jobs dropped slightly: -31, 000 or -0.2% M/M

๐ŸŸฉ July unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9% (vs. 5.7% in Feb 2020)

Consumer confidence began to stabilize near the bottom.

๐ŸŸง Aug consumer confidence (Bloomberg-Nanos): +1.1 points M/M to 46.67

All of these follow similar trends south of the border.

The implication of the next rate hike?

BoC can opt for 50 bps vs. 75 bps, not dampening the overall demand too fast.

๐ŸŸฆ This yearโ€™s cumulative rate hike has reached 225 bps.

๐ŸŸฆ July avg housing $ sales dropped 23% from Feb peak.

๐ŸŸฆ July HPI index down 6% from Feb peak, still +11% Y/Y.

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