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  • Frank Tian

Canadian Banks Q3 Reserve

🇨🇦 Despite the recession risk, no need to panic.

According to the reserve changes at the Big 5 Canadian banks.

In Q3 F’22 (ending July), the total allowances were barely changed:

The collective reserves of the Big 5 are up 0.3% Q/Q, or $0.1 billion CAD.

🟥 In 2020, 5 banks quickly raised the reserves by 70~% or $12.6 billion, in fear of the pandemic recession.

🟩 In the 6 quarters after, 70% of the reserves build-up or $8.9 billion was gradually released. The public and private relief programs steered clear of the worst scenario.

🟨 In Q3 F’22, after the slight increase, the total reserves are 20% or $3.8 billion more than the pre-pandemic level in Q1 F’20.

Some(what) good signs as we head into the last 4 months of 2022

🟦 Inflation turns: July inflation down to 7.6% Y/Y vs. 8.1% in June.

🟦 Jobs abundant: June # of job vacancies remain high at 1.04 million.

🟦 Consumer confidence slowly rebounds Aug 26 Bloomberg-Nanos index +1.8 points M/M to 48.0.

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