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  • Frank Tian

๐Ÿ  Canadian Mortgage Risk Snapshot - Q3 '22

Updated: Dec 23, 2022

Canadian Real Estate Tanks Fast This Year.


How much risk is in the overall mortgage portfolio? ๐Ÿ‘‡


Here is a Rough view of the Big 5 banksโ€™ Q3 presentations.


It is a very rough estimate, as each bank reports different metrics.


๐ŸŸฆ Big 5 have $1.3 trillion in Canadian mortgages.


๐ŸŸฆ 72%~ of mortgages are Uninsured: $950~ billion CAD.


๐ŸŸฆ Among the Uninsured, less than 5% have FICO (credit bureau score) < 650.


๐ŸŸฆ Among the Uninsured, less than 1% have low FICO and high LTV ratio: FICO<650 and LTV>75%.


๐ŸŸฆ 1% of the total Uninsured is $10~ billion CAD.


๐ŸŸฆ 14%~ of the overall mortgage balance is Condo.


๐ŸŸฆ 11%~ of the overall mortgage balance is Investment.



Canada has seen a turbulent market in 2022 so far.


๐ŸŸง BoC hiked the rate by 225 bps in 5 months.


๐ŸŸง July national sales volume is down 29% Y/Y.


๐ŸŸง July avg housing $ sales dropped 23% from Feb peak.


๐ŸŸง July HPI index down 6% from Feb peak, still +11% Y/Y.


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