🏠 Canadian Mortgage Risk Snapshot - Q3 '22

Canadian Real Estate Tanks Fast This Year.

How much risk is in the overall mortgage portfolio? 👇

Here is a Rough view of the Big 5 banks’ Q3 presentations.

It is a very rough estimate, as each bank reports different metrics.

🟦 Big 5 have $1.3 trillion in Canadian mortgages.

🟦 72%~ of mortgages are Uninsured: $950~ billion CAD.

🟦 Among the Uninsured, less than 5% have FICO (credit bureau score) < 650.

🟦 Among the Uninsured, less than 1% have low FICO and high LTV ratio: FICO<650 and LTV>75%.

🟦 1% of the total Uninsured is $10~ billion CAD.

🟦 14%~ of the overall mortgage balance is Condo.

🟦 11%~ of the overall mortgage balance is Investment.

Canada has seen a turbulent market in 2022 so far.

🟧 BoC hiked the rate by 225 bps in 5 months.

🟧 July national sales volume is down 29% Y/Y.

🟧 July avg housing $ sales dropped 23% from Feb peak.

🟧 July HPI index down 6% from Feb peak, still +11% Y/Y.