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  • Frank Tian

Q4 '22 Fed Household Credit Report

2022 saw the fastest rate hike.

How is US consumer credit doing?

Here is the latest Fed report: ๐Ÿ‘‡

US household debt up $394 billion in Q4 โ€˜22.

The total debt reached $16.90 trillion.

$1.32 trillion increase or +8.5% vs. Q4 โ€˜21.

๐Ÿก Mortgage

Up $254 billion Q/Q, +9.1% Y/Y.

With the interest rate rising fast,

Origination $ back to the 2019 level.

Shrinking HELOC trend reversed.

Consumers tapped $14B more in Q4.

๐Ÿš— Auto loan

Up $28 billion Q/Q, +6.5% Y/Y.

Origination $ in Q4 is still solid.

New car prices still slowly rise.

Used car prices down 12% from the peak.

๐Ÿ’ณ Credit card

Up $61 billion Q/Q, +130 billion Y/Y.

Another 15% Y/Y growth quarter after Q3.

With higher prices and strong job market,

The card balance is approaching $1 trillion.

๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐ŸŽ“ Student loan

Up $21 billion Q/Q, +1.2% Y/Y.

The total balance is $1.60 trillion.

Payment resuming still up in the air,

Pending litigation over loan forgiveness.

๐ŸŸจ Risk Normalization

The risk normalization (increase) is clear and steady.

๐Ÿ“Œ The flow rates to 30+ days delinquencies are approaching to pre-pandemic level for Auto Loan and Credit Card.

๐Ÿ“Œ 34,000 individuals had Mortgage Foreclosures in Q4 vs. 28,500 in Q3, and 35,000 in Q2.

๐Ÿ“Œ New Bankruptcies remain steady - it has been below 100,000 for 5 quarters in a row.

Source: The Fed, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

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