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  • Frank Tian

🚨 US Banks Accelerated Reserve Building.

But it is not as bad as it sounds.


The top 4 US banks accelerated their reserve building in Q4 ‘22: +$2.9B, or +4.4% Q/Q.


This is the 3rd consecutive quarter with a reserve increase since Q2 ‘22, as the Fed began the current rate hike cycle.


The current total reserve of the top 4 banks is $69.4B, 16.5% higher from Jan 1st, 2020, right before the pandemic.


But it is not as bad as it sounds.


If you consider the inflation, the number is on par with 3 years ago.


The signals are pointing to the increased odds of a soft landing:

- Inflation slowly drops

- Consumer default is low

- The employment market is still strong

- The rate hike expected to be near the end


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