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  • Frank Tian

US Q3 Update

Q3 saw fast rate hikes and an uncertain future.

How is the US household credit doing?

Here is the latest Fed report: 👇

US household debt up $351 billion in Q3 ‘22.

The total debt reached $16.51 trillion.

$1.26 trillion increase or +8.5% vs. Q3 ‘21.

🏡 Mortgage

Up $282 billion Q/Q, +9.3% Y/Y.

With the interest rate rising fast,

Origination $ back to early 2020 level.

Consumers began to tap HELOC again.

🚗 Auto loan

Up $22 billion Q/Q, +5.6% Y/Y.

Origination slower but still elevated.

New car price remains historically high,

While used car price down 11% Y/Y.

💳 Credit card

Up $38 billion Q/Q, +120 billion Y/Y.

15% Y/Y rebound is the highest in 20 years.

With higher prices and summer sunshine,

Consumers not shy to pull out their cards.

👩‍🎓 Student loan

Down slightly Q/Q, -0.6% Y/Y.

The total balance is $1.57 trillion.

One last payment pause till Dec 31.

Though forgiveness is being challenged.

🟩 Credit Quality

For all the major credit products, the late-stage delinquency rates remained low.

The underwriting is still robust: the median score of new mortgages is 768.

🟨 Risk Normalization

The risk normalization (increase) carries on.

💠 The flow rates to both 30+ and 90+ days delinquency continue to climb.

💠 28,500 individuals had foreclosures in Q3 vs. 35,000 in Q2, 24,000 in Q1.

Full Report:

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